1991—2010年中国棉花病虫害经济损失分析
Analysis of economic loss from pest insects and plant disease in cotton of Chinaduring 1991-2000
房 雪1 GE Saiying2 张永生3 曹 婧3 欧阳芳1**
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DOI：
作者单位：（1. 中国科学院动物研究所 农业虫害鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室，北京 100101；2. Fisher College of Business，Ohio State University Columbus，Ohio 43210；3. 湖南农业大学 植物保护学院，长沙 410128
中文关键词： 棉花，虫害，病害，发生面积，挽回损失量，实际损失量，经济评估
英文关键词：cotton, cotton pest insect, pathogen disease, occurrence area, yield enhance after control, actual loss yield after control, economic loss analysis
中文摘要：
【目的】 棉花病虫害发生种类繁多和暴发频繁，是威胁我国棉花安全生产的重要因素，但对其变化趋势与实际危害损失不清楚。【方法】 本文利用中国植物保护统计数据、棉花产量数据和农田土地覆盖类型分布遥感数据，重点分析了中国1991—2010年20年期间棉花病虫害发生面积、防治程度、挽回损失量、挽回损失率和实际损失率的变化趋势。【结果】 分析结果表明：1）1991 到2010 年棉花虫害发生面积、防治面积分别下降24.2%和15.1%，但由于害虫发生强度增加15.9%，导致虫害防治后挽回损失量和实际损失量仍分别增长25.3%和22.4%；而棉花病害发生面积、防治面积、防治后挽回损失量与实际损失量都分别增加了16.2%，38.3%，303.8%和175.4%。2）无论是发生面积、防治面积、防治后挽回损失量拟或实际损失量，棉花虫害造成的影响程度均高于病害。3）尽管开展了一系列控制措施，但棉花病虫害实际损失率还是从1991年的4.0%上升到2010年的5.7%；其中，由于虫害引起实际损失量从1991年的19.06万 t到2010年的23.33万 t，病害引起棉花实际损失量从3.90万 t到10.72万 t。4）1991—2010年20年期间棉花病虫害主要分布在我国黄河流域和新疆地区。【结论】 我国棉花病虫害危害仍严重，而且未来有加重的趋势。建议加强农田景观变化和气候变化等对棉花病虫害发生与灾变的风险评估和监测预警，开展区域性棉花病虫害综合治理研究，并建立相应的对策。
英文摘要：[Objectives] Cotton is an important economic crop inChina. Frequent outbreaks of biological disasters such as plant disease and pest insect has been threatening the cotton production inChinasince 1991. [Methods] In current study, by using 20 years’ statistical data of cotton protection, cotton yields and occurrence of pathogens and pest insects, we mainly analyzed the potential tendency of occurrence areas, yield enhance after control, actual loss yield after control of cotton pest insect and disease from 1991 to 2010. [Results] Firstly, with respect to the pest insect, the occurrence areas and control areas decreased 24.2% and 15.1% while yield enhance after control, actual loss yield after control increased 25.3% and 22.4%, respectively. With respect to the pathogen disease, the occurrence areas, control areas, yield enhance after control, actual loss yield after control all increased 16.2%, 38.3%, 303.8% and 175.4%, respectively. Secondly, the occurrence areas, control areas, yield enhance after control, actual loss yield after control from pest insect were higher than these from pathogen diseases. Thirdly, although we took a series of control measures, the actual loss yield rate caused by insect pest and pathogen disease were elevated from 4.0% in 1991 to 5.7% in 2010. Specifically, the actual loss yield caused by pest insect and pathogen disease was increased from 19.06 ton and 3.90 ton in 1991 to 23.33 ton and 10.72 ton in 2010, respectively. Finally, pathogen diseases and pest insects of cotton mainly occurred in Middle and Eastern regions as well as Xinjiang’s districts ofChina. [Conclusion] Pest insects and pathogen disease are still important factors influencing the cotton production inChina. In order to effectively reduce the negative effect of cotton pest insect and pathogen disease, we should establish the risk assessment and monitor and warn those biological disasters in time, improve the ecological environment of farmland, increase the integrated pest management researches on regional farmland ecosystem, and then take corresponding and propermeasures.