我国柑橘木虱潜在适生区分布及趋势分析
Studies of the past, current and future potential distributions of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Homoptera: Psyllidae) in China
汪善勤1, 2** 肖云丽3, 4 张宏宇1, 4***
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DOI:10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2015.136
作者单位:1. 华中农业大学植物科技学院,城市与园艺昆虫学研究所,武汉430070;2. 华中农业大学资源与环境学院,农业部长江中下游耕地保育重点实验室,武汉430070;3. 黄冈师范学院生命科学学院,黄冈 438000;4. 大别山特色资源开发湖北省协同创新中心,黄冈 438000
中文关键词:柑橘木虱,潜在适生区,CLIMEX,黄龙病
英文关键词:Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, potential distribution, CLIMEX, Candidatus Liberobacter asiaticus
中文摘要:
【目的】 柑橘木虱Diaphorina citri Kuwayama是传播黄龙病的重要虫媒,给柑橘生产带来极大危害。本文通过已知柑橘木虱发生地信息和40年气象数据求取准确的生物气候模型参数,在此基础上分析我国柑橘木虱潜在适生区分布变化和未来发展趋势。【方法】 本文从1970年以来公开发表的文献中整理提取了柑橘木虱在我国1990年前后的发生地信息,分别基于CLIMEX的标准气象数据和国家气象局发布的1991—2010年的气象数据,得到能够准确预测柑橘木虱潜在适生区分布的CLIMEX参数。然后使用CliMond发布的2030和2050年的全球气象数据,预测了未来柑橘木虱在我国的潜在适生区。【结果】 2010年后柑橘木虱适生区分布北移明显,与实际发生地信息相吻合;全球气候变暖趋势影响下,2030年柑橘木虱适生区继续向北方扩展,但到2050年的适生区北界基本稳定,相比较而言临界区北移更加突出。【结论】 柑橘木虱适生区北移明显,在未来气候条件下,干胁迫将阻止其进一步北移;但在临界气候条件下有建立种群的可能,对于目前未见该虫发生报道的潜在适生区,应加强早期预警和检疫防控措施。
英文摘要: [Objectives] Dysphoria citri Kuwayama (Homoptera: Psyllidae), the vector of Huanglongbing (Candidatus Liberobacter asiaticus), has caused major damage to China’s citrus industry. The objective of this paper is to (a) obtain optimal parameters for a CLIMEX model for D. citri, and (b) to investigate the past, current and future potential distributions of D. citri in China. [Methods] Information on the range of D. citri before and after 1990 in China were derived from the literature published since 1970. The parameters of a CLIMEX model were adjusted to fit these data and the species potential future range was estimated by the model. Two meteorological datasets, the CLIMEX integrated climate dataset (1961-1990) and a 1991-2010 dataset released by China Meteorological Administration, were used for model fitting. The future potential distributions of this pest in China were then predicted using CliMond datasets, including bioclimate data in 2030 and 2050. [Results] Compared with the distribution in 1990, by 2010 the northern boundary of D. citri range had, excluding the Sichuan Basin, moved north of latitude 32ºN. The post-1990 range was a good to fit to that predicted by CLIMEX. By 2030, D. citri is likely to colonize Central China as a result of global warming. Its 2050 distribution should, however, remain relatively unchanged, due projected rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation. [Conclusion] The northern edge of D. citri’s range will advance significantly northward in the future, but due projected reduced rainfall should not extend beyond 32.5°N. It’s worth noting, however, that marginal habitat, where populations of this pest could become established, will continuously move northward. Early warning and stricter regional quarantine measures should be taken in these areas to cope with the predicted expansion of the range of this pest.