外来入侵种——苹果绵蚜在中国的适生区预测
Potential distribution of an invasive pest, Eriosoma lanigerum in China
王兴亚1，蒋春廷2，许国庆1**
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作者单位：1. 辽宁省农业科学院植物保护研究所沈阳110161； 2. 沈阳市沈北新区马刚乡人民政府沈阳110124
中文关键词：苹果，苹果绵蚜，遗传算法，最大熵，潜在分布
英文关键词：Malus pumila, Eriosoma lanigerum, genetic algorithm, maximum entropy, potential distribution
中文摘要： 苹果绵蚜Eriosoma lanigerum（Hausmann）是我国重要的检疫性害虫，主要为害苹果、海棠等苹果属(Malus Mill.)植物。目前，该种害虫已在我国一些苹果主产区迅速扩散，并给我国的苹果产业造成了较为严重的经济损失。为了对其进行有效监控，控制其蔓延，制定合理的防治策略，本研究利用GARP和MAXENT两种生态位模型，结合其寄主地理分布，预测苹果绵蚜在我国的潜在地理分布区。研究结果表明：GARP和MAXENT预测结果相似，但前者预测面积比后者广泛。苹果绵蚜在我国的最适适生区主要分布在东北（辽宁南部）、华北（河北东、南部、北京、天津和山西南部）、华东（山东大部）、华中（河南北部）和西北（陕西中部）。另外，河北南部、山东和河南南部、甘肃东部、四川中南部、陕西大部、云南与西藏的零星地区是苹果绵蚜的中度适生区；黑龙江、吉林、新疆等20个省份（市、自治区）的全境是苹果绵蚜低度适生区或不适生区。此外，刀切法（Jackknife test）检验结果表明，1月份平均最高温是影响苹果绵蚜分布最重要的环境变量。最后，提出几点管理苹果绵蚜的方法和防治策略，避免该种害虫传播或入侵到其它苹果产区。
英文摘要：The woolly apple aphid, Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann), is an important pest in China. This pest is spreading rapidly and has caused serious economic losses in some apple producing areas. In order to monitor and manage this pest effectively it is necessary to investigate its potential geographical distribution worldwide. We used two ecological niche models, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule\|set Production (GARP) and the Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) model, along with the geographical distribution of the host plant, the apple tree (Malus pumila), to predict the potential geographical distribution of E. lanigerum. The potential distributions estimated by both models are generally consistent but GARP predicted a larger potential distribution than MAXENT. The results also indicate that the most suitable areas for woolly apple aphid colonization in China are mainly restricted to Northeast China (southern Liaoning), North China (southeast of Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin and southern Shanxi), East China (most of Shandong), Central China (northern Henan) and Northwest China (middle Shanxi). Some parts of southern Hebei, Shandong, Henan and eastern Gansu Provinces are predicted to be moderately suitable for this pest. In addition, some parts of 20 Provinces were predicted to have low suitability or be unsuitable (e.g. Heilongjiang, Jilin and Xinjiang). A Jackknife test implemented within MAXENT showed that the average maximum January temperature is the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of E. lanigerum. The results suggest several reasonable regulations and management strategies that should be adopted to prevent the spread of this high\|risk apple pest to currently unaffected apple producing areas.