Development and application of a medium-term prediction model for Apolygus lucorum (Hemiptera: Miridae)
Author of the article:Xiao Liu-Bin1** WANG Feng-Liang2 CHEN Hua2 WANG Zhen1 BAI Li-Xin1***
Author's Workplace：(1. Institute of Plant Protection, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China; 2. Plant Protection and Quarantine Station, Dafeng County, Dafeng 224100, China
Key Words：Apolygus lucorum, emergence period, emergence amount, prediction model
Abstract： [Objectives] Along with the widespread planting of transgenic cotton, Apolygus lucorum (Meyer-Dür) has become a major insect pest in cotton fields. An accurate prediction model can provide a foundation for the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] Sixteen years of data collected between 1993 and 2014 on A. lucorum population peaks、average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and sunlight hours at the Dafeng Plant Protection and Quarantine Station were analyzed using Multifactorial stepwise regression. All factors were then significance tested using DPS software and a prediction model developed using polynomial regression. [Results] A preliminary prediction model of the date and population size of each generation of A. lucorum was established with an average accuracy of 85%. [Conclution] The A. lucorum prediction model can be widely disseminated to forecast outbreaks of A. lucorum.