Studies of the past, current and future potential distributions of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Homoptera: Psyllidae) in China

Author of the article:WANG Shan-Qin1, 2** XIAO Yun-Li3, 4 ZHANG Hong-Yu1, 4***

Author's Workplace：1. Institute of Urban and Horticultural Entomology, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation, Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Ministry of Agriculture, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China; 3. Huanggang Normal College, School of Life Science, Huanggang 438000, China; 4. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for the Characteristic Resources Exploitation of Dabie Mountains, Huanggang 438000, China

Key Words：Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, potential distribution, CLIMEX, Candidatus Liberobacter asiaticus

Abstract： [Objectives]  Dysphoria citri Kuwayama (Homoptera: Psyllidae), the vector of Huanglongbing (Candidatus Liberobacter asiaticus), has caused major damage to China’s citrus industry. The objective of this paper is to (a) obtain optimal parameters for a CLIMEX model for D. citri, and (b) to investigate the past, current and future potential distributions of D. citri in China. [Methods]  Information on the range of D. citri before and after 1990 in China were derived from the literature published since 1970. The parameters of a CLIMEX model were adjusted to fit these data and the species potential future range was estimated by the model. Two meteorological datasets, the CLIMEX integrated climate dataset (1961-1990) and a 1991-2010 dataset released by China Meteorological Administration, were used for model fitting. The future potential distributions of this pest in China were then predicted using CliMond datasets, including bioclimate data in 2030 and 2050. [Results]  Compared with the distribution in 1990, by 2010 the northern boundary of D. citri range had, excluding the Sichuan Basin, moved north of latitude 32ºN. The post-1990 range was a good to fit to that predicted by CLIMEX. By 2030, D. citri is likely to colonize Central China as a result of global warming. Its 2050 distribution should, however, remain relatively unchanged, due projected rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation. [Conclusion]  The northern edge of D. citri’s range will advance significantly northward in the future, but due projected reduced rainfall should not extend beyond 32.5°N. It’s worth noting, however, that marginal habitat, where populations of this pest could become established, will continuously move northward. Early warning and stricter regional quarantine measures should be taken in these areas to cope with the predicted expansion of the range of this pest.