马尾松毛虫幼虫发生量的方差分析 周期外推预报——一代幼虫发生量 和高峰期发生量预报
Analysis of variance superimposed on periodic extrapolation of the occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus larvae
程 娴 ；张书平；余 燕；毕守东；周夏芝； 邹运鼎
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DOI：10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2019.121
作者单位：（1. 安徽农业大学理学院，合肥 230036；2. 安徽农业大学林学与园林学院，合肥 230036； 3. 安徽省潜山县林业局，潜山 246300；4 国家林业局森林病虫害防治总站，沈阳110034）
中文关键词：马尾松毛虫；一代幼虫发生量；一代幼虫高峰期发生量；方差分析周期外推预报
英文关键词：Dendrolimus punctatus; first generation larvae occurrence; first generation larval peak occurrence; variance analysis superimposed by periodic extrapolation method
中文摘要：【目的】 为了提高马尾松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus Walker发生量预报结果的准确性，以期为提高防治效果提供科学依据。【方法】 采用方差分析周期外推预报法研究安徽省潜山县1991-2016年25年的马尾松毛虫一代幼虫发生量和一代幼虫高峰期发生量，并对预报结果进行验证。【结果】 一代幼虫发生量的预报值与实况值相比，历史符合率达96%，只有2008年预报值与实况值差1级。一代幼虫高峰期发生量的预报值与实况值相比，25年中完全相同的有22年，历史符合率达88%。预报结果不同的是1996年、2005年和2016年，预测值与实况值均相差1级。【结论】 方差分析周期外推预报法对马尾松毛虫发生量的预报是一种较理想的预报方法。
英文摘要：[Objectives] To improve the accuracy of forecasting the occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] The occurrence, and peak occurrence, of first generation larvae in Qianshan County Anhui Province during the 25 years from 1991 to 2016 were studied using analysis of variance, superimposed on periodic extrapolation to verify the predictions. [Results] Comparison of the predicted occurrence of first generation larvae with the actual values indicates that the historical coincidence rate was 96% and the difference between forecasted and actual values in 2008 was only 1 unit. Compared to the actual values, the predicted peak of first generation occurrence was exactly the same in 22 years of the 25 years; a historical coincidence rate of 88%. In 1996, 2005 and 2016, the difference between predicted and actual values were just 1 unit. [Conclusion] Variance analysis superimposed on periodic extrapolation methods is an ideal way to predict the occurrence of D. punctatus.