摘  要  【目的】 预测当前及未来气候场景下烟草甲Lasioderrma serricorne（Fabricius）在我国的潜在地理分布，阐述烟草甲与气候因子之间的关系，为烟草甲的可持续治理提供理论基础。【方法】 收集烟草甲的分布数据与气候数据，采用MaxEnt模型进行潜在地理分布研究，模拟烟草甲在当前与未来气候变化下的潜在地理分布的情况。【结果】 最冷月的最低温度和最暖月的最高温度是影响烟草甲潜在地理分布的关键因素，烟草甲的高度适生区集中在我国南方，烟草甲的潜在地理分布未来有从北向南缩减的趋势。【结论】 本研究筛选出了6个影响烟草甲的关键气候因子，预测了其在当前及未来气候场景下在我国的潜在地理分布，为烟草甲的绿色防控提供依据。

Abstract  [Aim]  To predict the potential geographic distribution of Lasioderma serricorne, under current and future climate scenarios in China, thereby elucidating the relationship between L. serricorne and climate factors to provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable management of this pest. [Methods]  Data on the distribution of L. serricorne and climate data were collected and the MaxEnt model was utilized to simulate the potential geographic distribution of L. serricorne under current and future climate change scenarios. [Results]  The minimum temperature of the coldest month and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were found to be key factors influencing the potential geographic distribution of L. serricorne. The most suitable regions for L. serricorne are concentrated in southern China, and its geographic distribution is predicted to trend from north to south in the future. [Conclusion]  This study identified six key climate factors that affect the distribution of L. serricorne and predicts potential geographic distribution of L. serricorne in China. These findings provide a reference for the prevention and control of L. serricorne in a changing climate.