摘  要  【目的】 以黄斑长翅卷叶蛾Acleris fimbirana Thunberg发育起始温度及有效积温为基础，采用 CLIMEX系统对黄斑长翅卷叶蛾在中国的潜在适生性的区域作出预测，研究黄斑长翅卷叶蛾的风险扩散性，以期对黄斑长翅卷叶蛾制定综合管理策略提供量化参考。【方法】 研究5个恒温（18、21、24、27和30 ℃）对黄斑长翅卷叶蛾发育历期的影响，得到黄斑长翅卷叶蛾的发育起始温度和有效积温，并在此基础上，采用 CLIMEX系统对黄斑长翅卷叶蛾在中国的适生性区域进行预测。并用有害生物风险综合分析方法对黄斑长翅卷叶蛾进行风险评估。【结果】 随着温度升高，黄斑长翅卷叶蛾的生长速率加快。黄斑长翅卷叶蛾发育起点温度为（10.59±0.35）℃，完成一个世代有效积温为（560.60±33.19）日·度，在新疆一年完成3.51个世代。通过CLIMEX和ArcGIS分析，黄斑长翅卷叶蛾的适生范围较广，适生区面积为579.75万km²，其中高适生度面积可达94.39万km²，尤以河南、河北、陕西、山西适生度最高。新疆属于中低度发生区域，在新疆大部分地区均有潜在的威胁。通过有害生物风险综合分析方法得出该虫风险值评价指标体系 R 值为 1.972。【结论】 黄斑长翅卷叶蛾在我国60%的地区都可能发生，在我国属于中度危险有害生物，对我国林果业具有较高的风险，需要加强预警系统与制定除治措施，以期降低在我国的风险。

Abstract  [Aim]  Based on the initial temperature and effective accumulated temperature for the development of Acleris fimbirana Thunberg the CLIMEX system was used to predict the potential habitat of A. fimbirana.Additionally, the risk diffusion of A. fimbirana was analyzed to provide a quantitative reference for the formulation of comprehensive management strategies for this species. [Methods]  The effects of five constant temperatures (18, 21, 24, 27 and 30 ℃) on the development duration of A. fimbirana were examined. Based on this, the developmental starting temperature and effective accumulated temperature of A. fimbirana were obtained and the CLIMEX system was used to predict the optimal geographical regions for A. fimbirana within China. Furthermore, a comprehensive pest risk analysis method was used to assess the potential risks associated with A. fimbirana. [Results]  The growth rate of A. fimbirana increased with increasing temperature. The initial temperature and effective accumulated temperature for A. fimbirana were (10.59±0.35) ℃ and (560.60±33.19) degree·days, respectively. Additionally, a total of 3.51 generations per year were completed in Xinjiang. Based on the CLIMEX and ArcGIS analyses, potential suitable habitat for A. fimbirana was found to span 5 797 500 km². Within this, the area of highest adaptability spans up to 943 900 km², including Henan, Hebei, Shannxi and Shanxi, which had the highest fitness range for A. fimbirana. Xinjiang was classified as a low-to-moderate occurrence area, although there is a potential threat of A. fimbirana spreading to most parts of this region. [Conclusion]  Based on this findings of this study, A. fimbirana has the potential to inhabit up to 60% of China’s regions. Hence, it poses a significant threat in China, particularly within the forestry and fruit industry. Thus, proactive measures such as early warning systems and effective control measures are crucial in mitigating the potential impact and reducing the associated risks in China.