基于广义可加模型的昆虫种群动态非线性分析及R语言实现

Nonlinear analysis of insect population dynamics based on generalized additive models and statistical computing using R

欧阳芳,戈峰

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作者单位：中国科学院动物研究所 农业虫害鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室北京100101

中文关键词：种群动态， 非线性分析， 广义可加模型， R语言

英文关键词：population dynamics, analysis, generalized additive models, R project

中文摘要：

昆虫种群受到气候、天敌和土壤等多种生态因子的综合作用，其动态具有复杂性、不确定性和非线性等特征。广义加性模型 (generalized additive models,GAM) 就是适用于响应变量与解释变量之间的关系是非线性或非单调的数据分析。本文以1973—1990年稻纵卷叶螟种群数量与降雨持续天数和降雨量的相关性分析为例，介绍了广义可加模型的应用及其R语言实现步骤，为研究昆虫种群动态及其驱动因子提供了有效的分析工具。

英文摘要：Population dynamics are effect by ecological factors such as climate, natural enemies and soil conditions. Nonlinearity, complexity and uncertainty are inherent in insect population dynamics.Generalized additive models (GAMs) are often used to analyse nonlinear or nonmonotonic relationships between response and explanatory variables. These models provide effective tools for exploring the dynamics of insect populations and their primary driving factors. This paper introduces the use of generalized additive models in insect population dynamics and their analysis using R. The relationship between the population sizes of rice leaf folder, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee and the duration and amount of precipitation from 1973 to 1990 are modeled using GAM.

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