灰翅麦茎蜂成虫数量消长动态及其机率值模型(膜翅目：茎蜂科)
Population Dynamics and Probit Models of Adult Cephus fumipennis (Hymenoptera: Cephidae)
赵利敏，贾豪，杨荣科
点击：1963次 下载：10次
DOI：
作者单位：陕西理工学院
中文关键词：灰翅麦茎蜂；发生期；机率值模型；测报
英文关键词：Cephus fumipennis; occurrence period; probit model; forecast
中文摘要：灰翅麦茎蜂是春小麦的重要害虫之一。对其田间成虫数量消长动态做了系统观测，并利用机率值对日期的线性相关回归分析法模拟了观测数据。结果表明，成虫数量机率值对以儒略日期表示的观测期呈极显著相关；新建的7个机率值模型通过卡方检验，适合概率都高于0.99；成虫发生量对观测期呈正态分布。以这些模型为基础，估算并测报了成虫在3个观测点活动的高峰日、盛发期、显现期及其95%置信区间。在民和县观测点(海拔1,820 m)，理论盛发期为5月23日至6月4日；在循化点(海拔1,800 m)，为5月23日至6月2 日；在湟中点(海拔2,760 m)，则为7月3日至20日。显现期长度是盛发期的2倍；盛发期和显现期在各点都关于高峰日两侧对称。本文提出的机率值模型及其分析法可为昆虫种群的发生期测报提供参考。
英文摘要：The gray-winged wheat stem sawfly, Cephus fumipennis Ev. is a key insect pest on spring wheat in Northwestern China. To explore its bionomics and control techniques, the authors made systematic observations on growth and decline trends of adults in spring wheat fields, and simulated the observed data with a linear correlation and regression analysis between probits and dates. The results indicated that the probits for adults were closely correlated with the observational Julian dates; several probit models were established wherefrom; the chi-square goodness-of-fit test showed that the aptness of all the models was higher than 0.99; the curves of adult increments followed a normal distribution on the dates. Based on the models, the authors estimated and forecasted adults' peak days, peak periods, appearing periods, and related 95% confidence intervals at the three observational sites. At the site in Minhe County where the altitude was 1,820 m, the theoretical peak period was from May 23 to June 4; in Xunhua County, 1,800 m, from May 23 to June 2; whereas in Huangzhong County, 2,760 m, from July 3 to 20. At each site, the appearing period was twice as long as the peak one, and both periods were bilateral symmetry on the peak day. The probit models and the analytical methods would be applicable in forecasting of other insect occurrences.