东北二代粘虫大发生机制：1980年个例分析
Outbreak mechanism of second generation armyworms in northeastern China: A case study in 1980
胡 高1 吴秋琳1 武向文1 姜玉英2 曾 娟2 翟保平1**
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作者单位：1. 南京农业大学昆虫学系 农作物生物灾害综合治理教育部和农业部重点实验室，南京 210095；2. 全国农业技术推广服务中心，北京 100125
中文关键词：粘虫，WRF模式，轨迹分析，东北气旋
英文关键词：Mythimna separata, WRF model, trajectory analysis, northeast cyclone
中文摘要：
【目的】 1980年东北地区1代粘虫在黑龙江大发生，1代成虫羽化盛期也诱到大量的粘虫蛾，但2代粘虫在黑龙江省却并没有大发生，而在吉林省大发生。那么，黑龙江1代成虫迁往何处？吉林省2代粘虫大发生虫源又来自何方？本文通过解析1980年东北粘虫1代成虫的迁入迁出动态和大发生种群的形成过程，为粘虫间歇性猖獗的预测和治理提供依据。【方法】 基于WRF模式输出的高分辨率大气背景场，通过轨迹分析和天气学背景分析，阐释1980年东北粘虫1代蛾盛期的发生过程和迁飞动态及其大发生种群的形成机制。【结果】 1980年吉林省1代粘虫蛾盛期受东北气旋降水的影响，1代成虫无法成功外迁而滞留，加之从黑龙江迁出的粘虫蛾南迁过程中亦遇雨而迫降吉林，最终导致当年吉林2代粘虫的暴发。此外，由于副热带高压位置偏南，高压中心7月第6候南移到东北平原而盛行偏北气流，辽宁省有一定比例的南迁粘虫蛾能跨海进入山东、河北。【结论】 无法成功外迁而滞留（包括迁出后由于轨迹回旋或天气迫降等最终仍在东北境内降落）是东北2代粘虫暴发的根本原因。
英文摘要： [Objectives] An outbreak of 1st generation armyworm, Mythimna separata (Walker) occurred inHeilongjiangProvincein 1980, and numerous newly emerged moths were caught by poplar branch traps. However, an outbreak of 2nd generation armyworm subsequently occurred inJilinProvincerather than inHeilongjiangProvince. Where did these moths emigrate to and what was the source population? This study aims to provide suggestions for forecasting and controlling M. separata by investigating the migration process and the formation of outbreak populations. [Methods] The outbreak inJilinProvincein 1980 was studied by calculating trajectories using WRF, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. [Results] In 1980, the emigration of moths fromJilinProvincewas suppressed by successive rainfall caused by passing cyclones, which also flushed out the passing southward airborne migrants fromHeilongjiangProvince. Thus, the outbreak population inJilinProvincein 1980 was comprised of both the local population and immigrants. In addition, as the west Pacific subtropical high remained farther south than usual and the Yakutsk high reached the central plain of northeastern China in the sixth pentad of July, a few of moths from Liaoning Province could immigrate into Shandong and Hebei across the Bohai Sea with the prevailing northerly winds. [Conclusion] The primary cause of the outbreak of 2nd generation M. separata inJilinProvincein 1980 was the prevention of emigration of local populations and the concentrated immigration of both southward and northward airborne moths by fickle winds and heavy rainfall in the season.