柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫量与产卵痕率的关系模型研究
Modelling the relationship between adult Bactrocera minax numbers and ratio of oviposition scars during the peak foraging period
马海泉** 梁凌云** 程晓琴 王珊珊 张宏宇***
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DOI：10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2019.056
作者单位：（华中农业大学植物科学技术学院，中澳园艺和城市有害生物联合研究中心，城市与园艺昆虫研究所，武汉 430070）
中文关键词：柑橘大实蝇；成虫发生量；产卵痕率；预测预报
英文关键词：Bactrocera minax; adult occurrence amount; the ratio of oviposition scars; prediction and forecast
中文摘要：【目的】 通过研究柑橘大实蝇Bactrocera minax觅食高峰期成虫发生量与产卵痕率的关系，为柑橘大实蝇的预测预报和综合防治提供理论指导。【方法】 通过调查柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期在全田、橘园、杂树林、橘园与杂树林交界带和橘园中心的诱虫量和产卵痕率，建立二者在不同观测区域上的回归方程，为根据柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫发生量来预测产卵痕率，进而根据产卵痕率确定成虫期防治指标提供理论基础。【结果】 除了果园周边杂树林中柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫诱捕量的线性回归与非线性回归的分析均不理想, 不适宜用于产卵痕率的预测外，其他观测区域柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫诱捕量与果实产卵痕率建立的线性回归与非线性回归方程的拟合效果好，可以作为产卵痕率的预测模型。但不同区域的拟合效果存在差异，其中橘园中心成虫量与产卵痕率回归方程拟合效果（R2=0.957 5，RMSE=1.623）最好，其他依次分别是：整个橘园成虫量（R2=0.945 4, RMSE=1.859），全田成虫量（R2=0.898 2，RMSE=2.535），交界带成虫量（R2=0.851 5，RSME=3.038）。【结论】 这些回归方程均能够较好的预测产卵痕率。考虑到防治需要，可以在橘园中心设置诱捕点，以觅食高峰期的成虫量（x）预测产卵痕率（y），y=0.031 3 x3-1.306 5x2+17.206 0x-17.036 ，达到为柑橘大实蝇预测预报和综合防治提供理论指导的目的。
英文摘要：
[Objectives] To provide a theoretical basis for
predicting the ratio of oviposition
scars, and identify adult control indicators, from adult numbers during the peak B. minax foraging period, thereby improving
the ability to predict outbreaks of,
and control, this pest. [Methods]
Adult numbers and oviposition scars in fields, citrus
orchards, hybrid forests, junction zones and
the center of citrus orchards, were measured
and a regression model of the relationship between adult numbers and
oviposition scars in different habitats developed. [Results] With the exception of hybrid forest around
citrus orchards where the relationship between adult numbers and oviposition
scars was low (R2 <
0.800 0), linear, and non-linear, regression models were able to predict the ratio of
oviposition scars of B. dorsalis during the peak
foraging period. However, the coefficient of determination for the ratio of
oviposition scars was higher in the center of citrus orchards (R2=0.957 5, RMSE=1.623) than
in fields (R2=0.945
4, RMSE=1.859), the junction zone between citrus orchards (R2=0.898 2, RMSE=2.535) or hybrid forests (R2=0.851 5, RSME=3.038). [Conclusion] The
ratio of oviposition scars can be predicted from adult abundance with linear
regression. Considering the need for control, a trapping point can be established
in the center of citrus orchards and the
ratio of oviposition scars (y) can be predicted from adult numbers during the peak foraging
period using the following equation: (x), y=0.031 3 x3-1.306 5x2+17.206 0x-17.036 .