基于@RISK辣椒果实蝇对我国辣椒产业的潜在经济损失评估
The potential economic loss of chili industry in China caused by Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel) based on @RISK
康德琳** 孙宏禹 秦誉嘉 卢国彩 蓝 帅 李志红***
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DOI：10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2019.059
作者单位：（中国农业大学，植物保护学院，北京 100193）
中文关键词：辣椒果实蝇；辣椒；潜在经济损失；@RISK
英文关键词：Bactrocera latifrons; chili; potential economic loss; @RISK
中文摘要：【目的】 预测辣椒果实蝇Bactrocera latifrons Hendel对我国辣椒产业的潜在经济损失，为有关部门提供加强防控措施的科学依据。【方法】 在收集辣椒果实蝇、辣椒市场价格与防治费用相关数据的基础上，采用孙宏禹等（2018）所构建的重要经济实蝇潜在经济损失通用模型，利用@RISK软件及随机模拟方法，预测了辣椒果实蝇可能给我国辣椒产业带来的直接经济损失。【结果】 在不防治场景下的潜在经济损失总量在51 476.91-1 452 378.22万元之间，防治场景下的潜在经济损失总量在29 937.36-1 231 386.65万元之间，投入防治后所能挽回的潜在经济损失在8 075.53-441 462.75万元之间。【结论】 辣椒果实蝇可能给我国辣椒产业带来的潜在经济损失较大。建议我国有关部门进一步加强针对辣椒果实蝇的防控措施，从降低辣椒果实蝇为害率与损失率入手进行防治以减少其可能造成的经济损失。
英文摘要：[Objectives] To predict the potential economic loss to the
Chinese chili industry caused by the solanum fruit fly (Bactrocera latifrons Hendel), and provide a scientific basis for
the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] We collated relevant data on the
solanum fruit fly, the market price of chili and the cost of prevention, then
used the universal model of potential economic loss assessment due to
economically important fruit flies (Sun 2018), @RISK and a stochastic
simulation method to predict the potential direct economic loss to the chili
industry. [Results] With no control of the solanum fruit fly, we
predict that the chili industry could lose 514.77-14 523.78 million RMB, but
with effective control it would lose only 299.37-12 313.87 million RMB, a
saving of 80.76-4 414.63 million RMB. [Conclusion] The potential economic damage to the
chili industry in China caused by the solanum fruit fly is high. Strengthening
prevention and control of this pest is required to reduce rates of infection.