【目的】 为了研究甘薯小象甲Cylas formicarius (Fabricius)传入江苏及其在该地区扩散的风险性。【方法】 应用生物气候相似原理分析甘薯小象甲在江苏的潜在适生性。根据国际植物检疫措施标准（ISPM）规定的有害生物风险性分析（PRA）程序，利用相关风险性分析模型，从国内和江苏省内分布状况、潜在的危害性、被害栽培种的经济重要性、传入扩散及定殖的可能性以及风险性管理难度5个方面对甘薯小象甲在江苏的风险性进行定性和定量分析。【结果】 甘薯小象甲综合风险值R为2.26，且江苏北纬34.5°以南地区为甘薯小象甲的潜在季节性发生区，北纬34.5°以北地区为潜在零星发生区，江苏不存在非适生区和周年发生区。【结论】 甘薯小象甲符合检疫性有害生物的条件，江苏是其潜在适生区，据此提出了2条相关风险管理备选对策，以期使风险减少到可接受的水平。

[Objectives]  To investigate the risk of introducing and spreading the alien invasive sweet potato weevil, Cylas formicarius (Fabricius) in Jiangsu province. [Methods]  The principle of agroclimatic analogy was used to analyze the suitability of areas for C. formicarius in Jiangsu. Based on the pest risk analysis (PRA) procedure according to international standards for pest measurements (ISPM) and the relevant PRA model, this study based the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the risk of C. formicarius establishing in Jiangsu on five factors; the distribution of C. formicarius in China and Jiangsu, the potential damage that could be caused by this pest, the economic importance of damaged host plants, the risk of establishment and spread, and the difficulty of management. [Results]  The C. formicarius synthetic risk index is 2.26. In addition, C. formicarius occurs seasonally south of 34.5°N in Jiangsu but only sporadically north of this latitude. It should be noted that there is currently no part of Jiangsu that is absolutely unsuitable for C. formicarius or where the species occurs year-round. [Conclusion]  C. formicarius meets the requirements to be classified as quarantinable pest in China, and Jiangsu is a potential area where this species could establish. Based on this, two risk management strategies are proposed to reduce the risk of C. formicarius establishing in Jiangsu to an acceptable level.