基于不同气候情景的美国白蛾适生区预测
Predicted future range of the fall webworm in China based on different climate scenarios
刘 枫，公超群，李 硕，陈怡帆，周宏威
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DOI：10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2023.009
作者单位：东北林业大学，机电工程学院 哈尔滨 150040
中文关键词：美国白蛾；适生区预测；生态位模型
英文关键词：Hyphantria cunea; prediction of suitable area; species distribution models
中文摘要：
【目的】 通过预测分析美国白蛾在我国的适生区域，为美国白蛾的监测和防控提供理论依据。【方法】搜集并整理美国白蛾在我国县级的发生点数据，通过2003-2020年间月最高气温、月最低气温和月降水量等计算19个生物气候变量，结合全国高程数据，使用VIF和Spearman检验进行筛选保留9个最主要的环境变量，基于Biomod2的组合模型对当前美国白蛾适生区进行了预测；利用不同气候情景的未来气候数据，对我国未来一段时期的美国白蛾适生区进行了预测分析。【结果】 当前时期的美国白蛾适生区集中在辽宁、山东、河北、安徽等省市，在不同气候情景的未来时期，美国白蛾在我国的适生区将有向我国东北和南部地区扩散，适生区面积将进一步扩大。【结论】 研究结果为监测预警美国白蛾的扩散动态，也为科学防控并阻止其传播扩散提供理论支持。
英文摘要：
[Objectives] To predict the future range of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea) in China in order to improve the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] Records of the Fall Webworm collected in China from 2003 to 2020 were obtained and organized, and 19 bioclimatic variables for that period were calculated based on the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly precipitation. DEM data were obtained and future climate variables under different climate scenarios were calculated. The nine most important environmental variables were identified by VIF and Spearman’s rank correlation. Suitable current, and future, habitat for the Fall Webworm were then predicted based on an integrated Biomod2 model. [Results] Suitable habitat for the Fall Webworm is currently concentrated in Liaoning, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and other provinces. The range of the Fall Webworm is predicted to increase under different climate scenarios, with the overall trend being an expansion of the species’ range into northeastern and southern China. [Conclusion] The results provide early warning of areas likely to be colonized by the Fall Webworm, allowing appropriate control measures to be implemented beforehand to prevent its spread.