云杉花墨天牛在中国的风险分析
Risk of Monochamus saltuarius spreading in China
邹 娅，葛雪贞，周玉婷，郭思维，王 涛，宗世祥
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DOI：10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2023.031
作者单位：北京林业大学林业有害生物防治北京市重点实验室，北京 100083
中文关键词：云杉花墨天牛；风险分析；风险管理
英文关键词：Monochamus saltuarius Gebler; risk analysis; risk mangement
中文摘要：
【目的】 为研究云杉花墨天牛Monochamus saltuarius Gebler在我国扩散的风险性。【方法】 本文利用BIOMOD2 建模平台中的3个物种分布模型预测云杉花墨天牛适生区分布，从云杉花墨天牛的分布情况、潜在的经济危害性、寄主植物的分布和经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性和风险管理的难度5个方面对云杉花墨天牛进行风险分析。【结果】 云杉花墨天牛在我国的适生区面积广泛，综合风险值R为2.05，属于高度危险的有害生物。【结论】 云杉花墨天牛在我国高度危险，扩散到其他地区的风险性很高，需要制定检疫管理和除治措施，以期降低在我国的风险。
英文摘要：
[Objectives] To estimate the risk of Monochamus saltuarius Gebler spreading in China. [Methods] Three species distribution models within the BIOMOD2 modeling platform were used to predict the future distribution of M. saltuarius. In addition, we analyzed five potential consequences of the spread of this pest: its future distribution, its potential economic impact, the economic importance of its host plants, the possibility of transmission and the difficulty of control and management. [Results] The synthetic risk index, R, is 2.05 indicating that M. saltuarius has the potential to become widely distributed. [Conclusion] M. saltuarius has the potential to become a widespread, economically significant, pest in China. Quarantine management and removal measures need to be formulated to reduce the risk posed by this pest.