三种轨迹模型对草地螟迁飞路径的模拟
Simulation of Loxostege sticticalis migratory flight paths with three trajectory models
张 瑜，汪丽军，李祥瑞，张爱环，张云慧
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DOI：10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2023.084
作者单位：北京农学院生物与资源环境学院，农业农村部华北都市农业重点实验室，北京 102206；中国农业科学院植物保护研究所植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室，北京 100193
中文关键词：草地螟；迁飞；轨迹模拟；虫源
英文关键词：Loxostege sticticalis; migration; trajectory analysis; population source
中文摘要：
【目的】 草地螟Loxostege sticticalis是一种世界性害虫，通过大范围的迁飞给我国北方农牧区带来巨大威胁。迁飞路径的轨迹模拟是追溯虫源、实现早期预警的有效措施。本文对比不同轨迹模型模拟草地螟迁飞路径，筛选更加精准的轨迹模型，以提高草地螟预测预报的准确度，为其有效防控提供科学依据。【方法】 分别应用HYSPLIT、WRF-Trajectory、WRF-HYSPLIT 3种轨迹分析模式，选取2021年6月上中旬内蒙古科尔沁右翼前旗的一次典型迁飞过程，并结合ERA5再分析数据输出的空中风场和各地虫情信息，验证模型模拟结果的准确度和精确度。【结果】 HYSPLIT模型显示草地螟主要来自中蒙交界地带和蒙古国的中南部地区；WRF-Trajectory模式显示草地螟主要来自华北越冬虫源区，极少数来自蒙古国的东南部；WRF-HYSPLIT模拟结果主要来自我国华北越冬虫源区及中蒙交界地带。【结论】 综合草地螟的生存环境和取食条件，HYSPLIT、WRF-Trajectory及WRF-HYSPLIT模拟的各高度迁入种群的虫源区、迁飞路径和降落均合理、准确。但综合草地螟的实测虫情与起飞、运转和降落所处的天气背景，WRF-Trajectory和WRF-HYSPLIT模拟结果与各地虫情动态和迁飞高峰期盛行气流方向的吻合度高于HYSPLIT模式。
英文摘要：
[Objectives] To simulate the trajectory of the migration pathways of Loxostege sticticalis, a global pest that poses a major threat to agricultural and pastoral production in northern China. [Methods] A typical L. sticticalis migration in Horqin Right Front Banner, Inner Mongolia, in the early and middle of June 2021 was selected for analysis and three trajectory models, HYSPLIT, WRF-Trajectory and WRF-HYSPLIT, were used to simulate the migration trajectory. Models were verified with reference to air, wind, and ground survey information on insect abundance. [Results] The HYSPLIT model suggests that migratory L. sticticalis mainly come from the border of China and Mongolia and the central and southern regions of Mongolia. However, the WRF-Trajectory model suggests that most L. sticticalis come from an overwintering source area in North China, with only a few coming from the southeastern part of Mongolia. The WRF-HYSPLIT model suggests that most migratory L. sticticalis come from an overwintering source area in North China, and the border area between China and Mongolia. [Conclusion] All three models provided reasonable and accurate predictions of the source areas, migration paths and landing areas of migrating populations of L. sticticalis. However, the predictions of the WRF-Trajectory and WRF-HYSPLIT models were more consistent with actual distribution of L. sticticalis and prevailing weather conditions of the migration being modelled.