Analysis of variance superimposed on periodic extrapolation of the occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus larvae

Author of the article:CHENG Xian；ZHANG ShuPing；YU Yan；BI ShouDong；ZHOU XiaZhi；ZOU Yun-Ding

Author's Workplace：1. School of Science, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China; 2. School of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China; 3. Forestry Bureau of Qianshan County, Anhui Province, Qianshan 246300, China; 4. General Station of Forest Disease and Insect Pest Control of State Forestry Administration, Shenyang 110034, China

Key Words：Dendrolimus punctatus; first generation larvae occurrence; first generation larval peak occurrence; variance analysis superimposed by periodic extrapolation method

Abstract：[Objectives]  To improve the accuracy of forecasting the occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods]  The occurrence, and peak occurrence, of first generation larvae in Qianshan County Anhui Province during the 25 years from 1991 to 2016 were studied using analysis of variance, superimposed on periodic extrapolation to verify the predictions. [Results]  Comparison of the predicted occurrence of first generation larvae with the actual values indicates that the historical coincidence rate was 96% and the difference between forecasted and actual values in 2008 was only 1 unit. Compared to the actual values, the predicted peak of first generation occurrence was exactly the same in 22 years of the 25 years; a historical coincidence rate of 88%. In 1996, 2005 and 2016, the difference between predicted and actual values were just 1 unit. [Conclusion]  Variance analysis superimposed on periodic extrapolation methods is an ideal way to predict the occurrence of D. punctatus.