Abstract  [Aim]  To predict the potential geographic distribution of Lasioderma serricorne, under current and future climate scenarios in China, thereby elucidating the relationship between L. serricorne and climate factors to provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable management of this pest. [Methods]  Data on the distribution of L. serricorne and climate data were collected and the MaxEnt model was utilized to simulate the potential geographic distribution of L. serricorne under current and future climate change scenarios. [Results]  The minimum temperature of the coldest month and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were found to be key factors influencing the potential geographic distribution of L. serricorne. The most suitable regions for L. serricorne are concentrated in southern China, and its geographic distribution is predicted to trend from north to south in the future. [Conclusion]  This study identified six key climate factors that affect the distribution of L. serricorne and predicts potential geographic distribution of L. serricorne in China. These findings provide a reference for the prevention and control of L. serricorne in a changing climate.