Simulation of Loxostege sticticalis migratory flight paths with three trajectory models
Author of the article:ZHANG Yu, WANG Li-Jun, LI Xiang-Rui, ZHANG Ai-Huan, ZHANG Yun-Hui
Author's Workplace:College of Bioscience and Resource Environment/Key Laboratory of Urban Agriculture (North China), Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing 102206, China; State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
Key Words:Loxostege sticticalis; migration; trajectory analysis; population source
Abstract:
[Objectives] To simulate the trajectory of the migration pathways of Loxostege sticticalis, a global pest that poses a major threat to agricultural and pastoral production in northern China. [Methods] A typical L. sticticalis migration in Horqin Right Front Banner, Inner Mongolia, in the early and middle of June 2021 was selected for analysis and three trajectory models, HYSPLIT, WRF-Trajectory and WRF-HYSPLIT, were used to simulate the migration trajectory. Models were verified with reference to air, wind, and ground survey information on insect abundance. [Results] The HYSPLIT model suggests that migratory L. sticticalis mainly come from the border of China and Mongolia and the central and southern regions of Mongolia. However, the WRF-Trajectory model suggests that most L. sticticalis come from an overwintering source area in North China, with only a few coming from the southeastern part of Mongolia. The WRF-HYSPLIT model suggests that most migratory L. sticticalis come from an overwintering source area in North China, and the border area between China and Mongolia. [Conclusion] All three models provided reasonable and accurate predictions of the source areas, migration paths and landing areas of migrating populations of L. sticticalis. However, the predictions of the WRF-Trajectory and WRF-HYSPLIT models were more consistent with actual distribution of L. sticticalis and prevailing weather conditions of the migration being modelled.