Issue:ISSN 2095-1353
CN 11-6020/Q
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2023年60 No.3
Predicting the future distribution of Pantana phyllostachysae in China in a changing climate
Author of the article:ZHANG Hua-Feng
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Key Words：Pantana phyllostachysae; MaxEnt; climate change; suitable distribution area; prediction
Abstract：
[Objectives] Pantana phyllostachysae Chao is the main leaf-feeding pest in bamboo forest. Understanding the potential future distribution of this pest in a changing climate will be helpful for future pest monitoring and forecasting, and protecting bamboo forests. [Methods] Based on 169 distribution records, as well as contemporary and future climate data, we used the Maxent model and ArcGIS to predict the potential distribution of P. phyllostachysae under different climate scenarios. [Results] The AUC values of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) training in the MaxEnt model were all greater than 0.944 8, indicating that results of the predictive model were excellent. Precipitation in the driest month (bio14) and mean precipitation in the coldest quarter (bio19) are the main limiting factors affecting the distribution of P. phyllostachysae in China. The results of the MaxEnt model predict that the total habitat potentially suitable for P. phyllostachysae in China is 1.49 × 106 km2, and that areas of high and moderate suitability are mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Fujian, Hunan and Zhejiang provinces. In the predicted future climate conditions, the total area of suitable habitat did not change significantly, but abundance did. The area of low suitability habitat decreased slightly, and the area of medium and high suitability habitat increased slightly. In terms of geographical distribution, suitable areas are predicted to expand northward, southward and westward. Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and Hubei are predicted to become suitable for P. phyllostachysae in the future. [Conclusion] Global warming is predicted to have little effect on the distribution of P. phyllostachysae, but will affect the abundance and geographical distribution pattern of this pest. Monitoring, forecasting and control of P. phyllostachysae should be implemented in the areas predicted to become more suitable for this pest.