Potential geographical distribution of Megachile rotundata under climate change based on MaxEnt model
Author of the article:ZHU Meng-Meng, DUAN Pan, WANG Xian-Hui, HOU Li, ZHAO Zi-Hua
Author's Workplace:Institute of Plant Protection, Ningxia Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Key Words:MaxEnt model; solitary bee; pollination; introduction; climate change
Abstract:
Abstract [Aim] The alfalfa leafcutter bee (Megachile rotundata) is one of the most efficient pollinators of alfalfa. The aim of this study was to determine its potential geographic distribution and provide scientific guidance for selecting suitable areas for its brood production and to assess the risks of its introduction. [Methods] Based on the current global distribution of M. rotundata, we assessed the potential geographical distribution globally and in China under different climatic conditions and classified the dominant bioclimatic variable using the MaxEnt model. [Results] The results showed that the average area under curve (AUC) of the MaxEnt model was 0.951, indicating reliable prediction results. The mean temperature of the warmest quarter, bio10, had the greatest impact on the distribution of M. rotundata, accounting for 31.4% of the total. Under historical climatic conditions, the global distribution of M. rotundata was concentrated in Europe and North America. The distribution in China occurred in the central and western regions, including Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang, and Ningxia. Under projected future climatic conditions, habitable zones for M. rotundata are predicted to contract, whereas suitable areas in China are predicted to expand. As the climate warms, the most habitable areas for M. rotundata show a northward shift. These areas are projected to expand under the low forcing climate scenario but shrink under a high forcing climate scenario. Climate warming has resulted in an increase in the number of highly suitable areas for M. rotundata, particularly in regions such as Xizang and Qinghai. [Conclusion] M. rotundata has a relatively wide area of suitable habitat in China, indicating a high potential for future population expansion. The mean temperature of the warmest quarter, bio10, should be considered as the primary factor when selecting suitable areas for its reproduction. Additionally, risk assessment, pest quarantine, and bee management should be strengthened in China during its introduction and local brood production.