Potential distribution of an invasive pest, Eriosoma lanigerum in China

Key Words：Malus pumila, Eriosoma lanigerum, genetic algorithm, maximum entropy, potential distribution

Abstract：The woolly apple aphid, Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann), is an important pest in China. This pest is spreading rapidly and has caused serious economic losses in some apple producing areas. In order to monitor and manage this pest effectively it is necessary to investigate its potential geographical distribution worldwide. We used two ecological niche models, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule\|set Production (GARP) and the Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) model, along with the geographical distribution of the host plant, the apple tree (Malus pumila), to predict the potential geographical distribution of E. lanigerum. The potential distributions estimated by both models are generally consistent but GARP predicted a larger potential distribution than MAXENT. The results also indicate that the most suitable areas for woolly apple aphid colonization in China are mainly restricted to Northeast China (southern Liaoning), North China (southeast of Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin and southern Shanxi), East China (most of Shandong), Central China (northern Henan) and Northwest China (middle Shanxi). Some parts of southern Hebei, Shandong, Henan and eastern Gansu Provinces are predicted to be moderately suitable for this pest. In addition, some parts of 20 Provinces were predicted to have low suitability or be unsuitable (e.g. Heilongjiang, Jilin and Xinjiang). A Jackknife test implemented within MAXENT showed that the average maximum January temperature is the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of E. lanigerum. The results suggest several reasonable regulations and management strategies that should be adopted to prevent the spread of this high\|risk apple pest to currently unaffected apple producing areas.