Modelling the relationship between adult Bactrocera minax numbers and ratio of oviposition scars during the peak foraging period
Author of the article:MA Hai-Quan** LIANG Ling-Yun** CHENG Xiao-Qin WANG Shan- Shan ZHANG Hong-Yu***
Author's Workplace:(Institute of Urban and Horticultural Pests, China-Australia Joint Centre for Horticultural and Urban Pests, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)
Key Words:Bactrocera minax; adult occurrence amount; the ratio of oviposition scars; prediction and forecast
Abstract:
[Objectives] To provide a theoretical basis for
predicting the ratio of oviposition
scars, and identify adult control indicators, from adult numbers during the peak B. minax foraging period, thereby improving
the ability to predict outbreaks of,
and control, this pest. [Methods]
Adult numbers and oviposition scars in fields, citrus
orchards, hybrid forests, junction zones and
the center of citrus orchards, were measured
and a regression model of the relationship between adult numbers and
oviposition scars in different habitats developed. [Results] With the exception of hybrid forest around
citrus orchards where the relationship between adult numbers and oviposition
scars was low (R2 <
0.800 0), linear, and non-linear, regression models were able to predict the ratio of
oviposition scars of B. dorsalis during the peak
foraging period. However, the coefficient of determination for the ratio of
oviposition scars was higher in the center of citrus orchards (R2=0.957 5, RMSE=1.623) than
in fields (R2=0.945
4, RMSE=1.859), the junction zone between citrus orchards (R2=0.898 2, RMSE=2.535) or hybrid forests (R2=0.851 5, RSME=3.038). [Conclusion] The
ratio of oviposition scars can be predicted from adult abundance with linear
regression. Considering the need for control, a trapping point can be established
in the center of citrus orchards and the
ratio of oviposition scars (y) can be predicted from adult numbers during the peak foraging
period using the following equation: (x), y=0.031 3 x3-1.306 5x2+17.206 0x-17.036 .