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Your Position :Home->Past Journals Catalog->2019年56 No.3

The potential economic loss of chili industry in China caused by Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel) based on @RISK
Author of the article:KANG De-Lin** SUN Hong-Yu QIN Yu-Jia LU Guo-Cai LAN Shuai LI Zhi-Hong***
Author's Workplace:(College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China)
Key Words:Bactrocera latifrons; chili; potential economic loss; @RISK
Abstract:[Objectives]  To predict the potential economic loss to the Chinese chili industry caused by the solanum fruit fly (Bactrocera latifrons Hendel), and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods]   We collated relevant data on the solanum fruit fly, the market price of chili and the cost of prevention, then used the universal model of potential economic loss assessment due to economically important fruit flies (Sun 2018), @RISK and a stochastic simulation method to predict the potential direct economic loss to the chili industry. [Results]   With no control of the solanum fruit fly, we predict that the chili industry could lose 514.77-14 523.78 million RMB, but with effective control it would lose only 299.37-12 313.87 million RMB, a saving of 80.76-4 414.63 million RMB. [Conclusion]   The potential economic damage to the chili industry in China caused by the solanum fruit fly is high. Strengthening prevention and control of this pest is required to reduce rates of infection.
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