The potential economic loss of chili industry in China caused by Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel) based on @RISK
Author of the article:KANG De-Lin** SUN Hong-Yu QIN Yu-Jia LU Guo-Cai LAN Shuai LI Zhi-Hong***
Author's Workplace:(College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China)
Key Words:Bactrocera latifrons; chili; potential economic loss; @RISK
Abstract:[Objectives] To predict the potential economic loss to the
Chinese chili industry caused by the solanum fruit fly (Bactrocera latifrons Hendel), and provide a scientific basis for
the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] We collated relevant data on the
solanum fruit fly, the market price of chili and the cost of prevention, then
used the universal model of potential economic loss assessment due to
economically important fruit flies (Sun 2018), @RISK and a stochastic
simulation method to predict the potential direct economic loss to the chili
industry. [Results] With no control of the solanum fruit fly, we
predict that the chili industry could lose 514.77-14 523.78 million RMB, but
with effective control it would lose only 299.37-12 313.87 million RMB, a
saving of 80.76-4 414.63 million RMB. [Conclusion] The potential economic damage to the
chili industry in China caused by the solanum fruit fly is high. Strengthening
prevention and control of this pest is required to reduce rates of infection.