Climate change impacts on the global potential distribution of Dendrolimus tabulaeformis

Author of the article:ZOU Ya；GUO Si-Wei；ZHOU Yu-Ting；WANG Tao；ZONG Shi-Xiang；GE Xue-Zhen

Author's Workplace：Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation of Ministry of Education, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; Mentougou Forestry Station, Beijing 102300, China; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada

Key Words：Dendrolimus tabulaeformis; climate change; potential distribution; host plant, CLIMEX4.0.0

Abstract：[Objectives]  The study aims to clarify the potential distribution of Dendrolimus tabulaeformis in China to reduce the economic and ecological losses caused by the spread of the pest. [Mehtods]  In this study, we used CLIMEX software, combined with the known geographical distribution and biological data of Dendrolimus tabulaeformi and Pinus tabulaeformis, to predict the global potential distribution of the pest and its host plant under historical climatic condition (1987-2016) and future climatic condition (2071-2100). Besides, we analyzed the impact of climate change on the climatic suitability of the pest and its host plant. We also identified the impacts of host plant on the climatic suitability of the pest. [Results]  The results show that the pest had a suitable distribution area in all continents (except Antarctica) under historical and future climatic conditions. The marginal region was widely distributed, while the very favorable region was only distributed in some areas, such as the United States and China. Furthermore, the potential habitat of the pest tended to move northward, and the total suitable area increased in the future. The host plant only had slight impacts on the potential distribution of the pest. [Conclution]  We clarified the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of D. tabulaeformi and provided a theoretical basis for the future monitoring and control of the pest.