[Objectives]  To estimate the risk of Monochamus saltuarius Gebler spreading in China. [Methods]  Three species distribution models within the BIOMOD2 modeling platform were used to predict the future distribution of M. saltuarius. In addition, we analyzed five potential consequences of the spread of this pest: its future distribution, its potential economic impact, the economic importance of its host plants, the possibility of transmission and the difficulty of control and management. [Results]  The synthetic risk index, R, is 2.05 indicating that M. saltuarius has the potential to become widely distributed. [Conclusion]  M. saltuarius has the potential to become a widespread, economically significant, pest in China. Quarantine management and removal measures need to be formulated to reduce the risk posed by this pest.